Historically, active shooter and targeted violence incidents across public spaces, including higher education campuses, were widely viewed as unpredictable and firmly outside the normal scope of institutional risk planning. Yet, the environment in which such incidents occur and the consequences that follow present an altered and expanded set of risks compared to 10 years ago. Now, atop the pain of human loss and injury, an institution that suffers a shooting can expect to face years of litigation exposure, scrutiny, and reputational damage. The impact of a single incident now reverberates far beyond the campus and primary stakeholders, producing longstanding fallout.
Rising Violence
According to current Gun Violence Archive (GVA)1 data, the number of gunshot victims on college campuses increased by 200% from 2016 to 2025. Over the same period, known campus shootings rose nearly 70%. Even when such incidents remain statistically infrequent relative to the size of the higher education sector, the upward trend objectively demonstrates escalating risk.
Courts and prosecutors now examine whether individuals and organizations exercised reasonable diligence to anticipate or mitigate armed violence as a foreseeable threat.
Climbing rates of campus violence are one of the primary drivers of legal and regulatory evolution in the public violence environment. Courts and prosecutors now examine whether individuals and organizations exercised reasonable diligence to anticipate or mitigate armed violence as a foreseeable threat. While this does not suggest institutions must be capable of stopping each and every act of violence, it clearly shows that expectations regarding the duty of care have expanded.
The relevant question for institutional leadership is not whether violent risk can be anticipated on campus, but whether a school can demonstrate that it took meaningful steps to r