Significant Risks Facing Higher Education in 2025 and Beyond
Co-authored with Jake Braunsdorf, Joseph Lord
By Cynthia Vitters
American Higher Education institutions are increasingly vulnerable to diverse risks that require robust protective measures. Some of the key challenges currently faced by these institutions include declining enrollment numbers, high faculty and staff turnover, cybersecurity threats, and more.
Our “Significant Risks Facing Higher Education” report focuses on some of the most significant risks—and drivers of those risks—facing American colleges and universities over the next one to three years. The list is not meant to be exhaustive; rather, the risks covered are those that most institutions should at least consider or address more vigorously.
Our perspective is driven by our below definition of risk vs. risk driver and is informed by a variety of stakeholders whose viewpoints range from operational to strategic.
Risk: Defined as a state of uncertainty where the answer to "Did the risk occur?" can be a binary yes or no, with some possibilities being undesirable outcomes.
Risk Driver: Continuous factors, often referred to as "trends" that influence the likelihood or impact of a risk or a risk that could influence another risk's likelihood or impact.
Risk of faculty and staff attrition
Faculty and staff attrition, whether voluntary or involuntary, exposes institutions to loss of expertise and institutional knowledge, which can create knowledge gaps and undermine quality and efficiency. High attrition increases recruitment and training costs and further diverts resources from other priorities.
The percentage of full-time, exempt staff members who left their jobs nearly doubled over two years—from 7.9% during the academic year of 2020 to 2021 to 14.3% during the academic year of 2022 to 2023.
High turnover tends to diminish morale and engagement among remaining faculty and staff, who